Investing in school systems: conceptualising returns on investment across the health, education and social protection sectors.

Public policies often aim to improve welfare, economic injustice and reduce inequality, particularly in the social protection, labour, health and education sectors. While these policies frequently operate in silos, the education sphere can operate as a cross-sectoral link. Schools represent a unique locus, with globally hundreds of millions of children attending class every day. A high-profile policy example is school feeding, with over 400 million students worldwide receiving meals in schools. The benefits of harmonising interventions across sectors with a common delivery platform include economies of scale. Moreover, economic evaluation frameworks commonly used to assess policies rarely account for impact across sectors besides their primary intent. For example, school meals are often evaluated for their impact on nutrition, but they also have educational benefits, including increasing attendance and learning and incorporating smallholder farmers into corporate value chains. To address these gaps, we propose the introduction of a comprehensive value-for-money framework for investments toward school systems that acknowledges the return to a common delivery platform-schools-and the multisectoral returns (eg, education, health and nutrition, labour, social protection) emerging from the rollout of school-based programmes. Directly building on benefit-cost analysis methods, this framework could help identify interventions that yield the highest gains in human capital per budget expenditure, with direct implications for finance ministries. Given the detrimental impact of COVID-19 on schoolchildren and human capital, it is urgent to build back stronger and more sustainable welfare systems.

The potential distributional health and financial benefits of increased tobacco taxes in Ethiopia: Findings from a modeling study.

Ethiopia raised taxes on tobacco products in early 2020, increasing the overall price of the typical pack of cigarettes by about 67%. We quantify the potential impacts of Ethiopia's tobacco tax hike on various outcomes-life years, tax revenues, cigarette expenditures and catastrophic health expenditures (CHE). Using parameters like price elasticity of demand for cigarettes and smoking prevalence in Ethiopia from the existing literature and secondary data sources, we model the potential implications of the reform at the population level and for different wealth quintiles. We focus only on men since a small proportion of Ethiopian women smoke. Results indicate that Ethiopia's tax hike could induce a significant proportion of current smokers to quit smoking and thereby save almost eight million years of life in the current population. The reform is also likely to increase tax revenues by USD26 million in the first year after its introduction. The richest quintile will bear the greatest share of this higher tax burden and the poorest will bear the least. Additionally, deaths due to the main diseases associated with smoking will fall. This is expected to avert up to 173,000 CHE cases due to the out-of-pocket costs that would have been incurred in obtaining medical treatment. This analysis highlights that cigarette tax hikes in countries that have low smoking prevalence can reduce smoking even further, and thereby protect against the future health and financial costs of smoking. Importantly, the effects of these policies can be progressive across the income spectrum.

Modeling the relative risk of incidence and mortality of select vaccine-preventable diseases by wealth group and geographic region in Ethiopia.

Immunization is one of the most effective public health interventions, saving millions of lives every year. Ethiopia has seen gradual improvements in immunization coverage and access to child health care services; however, inequalities in child mortality across wealth quintiles and regions remain persistent. We model the relative distributional incidence and mortality of four vaccine-preventable diseases (VPDs) (rotavirus diarrhea, human papillomavirus, measles, and pneumonia) by wealth quintile and geographic region in Ethiopia. Our approach significantly extends an earlier methodology, which utilizes the population attributable fraction and differences in the prevalence of risk and prognostic factors by population subgroup to estimate the relative distribution of VPD incidence and mortality. We use a linear system of equations to estimate the joint distribution of risk and prognostic factors in population subgroups, treating each possible combination of risk or prognostic factors as computationally distinct, thereby allowing us to account for individuals with multiple risk factors. Across all modeling scenarios, our analysis found that the poor and those living in rural and primarily pastoralist or agrarian regions have a greater risk than the rich and those living in urban regions of becoming infected with or dying from a VPD. While in absolute terms all population subgroups benefit from health interventions (e.g., vaccination and treatment), current unequal levels and pro-rich gradients of vaccination and treatment-seeking patterns should be redressed so to significantly improve health equity across wealth quintiles and geographic regions in Ethiopia.

Health gains and financial protection from human papillomavirus vaccination in Ethiopia: findings from a modelling study.

High out-of-pocket (OOP) medical expenses for cervical cancer (CC) can lead to catastrophic health expenditures (CHEs) and medical impoverishment in many low-resource settings. There are 32 million women at risk for CC in Ethiopia, where CC screening is extremely limited. An evaluation of the population health and financial risk protection benefits, and their distributional consequences across socioeconomic groups, from human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination will be critical to support CC prevention efforts in this setting. We used a static cohort model that captures the main features of HPV vaccines and population demographics to project health and economic outcomes associated with routine HPV vaccination in Ethiopia. Health outcomes included the number of CC cases, and costs included vaccination and operational costs in 2015 US dollars over the years 2019-2118 and CC treatment costs over the lifetimes of cohorts eligible for vaccination in Ethiopia. We estimated the household OOP medical expenditures averted (assuming 68% of direct medical expenditures were financed OOP) and cases of CHE averted. A case of CHE was defined as 40% of household consumption expenditures, and the cases of CHE averted depended on wealth quintile, disease incidence, healthcare use and OOP payments. Our analysis shows that, assuming 100% vaccine efficacy against HPV-16/18 and 50% vaccination coverage, routine HPV vaccination could avert up to 970 000 cases of CC between 2019 and 2118, which translates to ∼932 000 lives saved. Additionally, routine HPV vaccination could avert 33 900 cases of CHE. Approximately one-third of health benefits would accrue to the poorest wealth quintile, whereas 50% of financial risk protection benefits would accrue to this quintile. HPV vaccination can reduce disparities in CC incidence, mortality and household health expenditures. This understanding and our findings can help policymakers in decisions regarding targeted CC control efforts and investment in a routine HPV vaccination programme following an initial catch-up programme.

Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030. METHODS: 16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort. FINDINGS: We estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52-88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30-48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36-58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52-66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93-150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39-76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25-52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59-81) reduction in lifetime mortality in the 2019 birth cohort. INTERPRETATION: Increases in vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccines into LMICs have had a major impact in reducing mortality. These public health gains are predicted to increase in coming decades if progress in increasing coverage is sustained. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Questioning the regressivity of tobacco taxes: a distributional accounting impact model of increased tobacco taxation.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco taxes, as with other 'sin taxes', are generally regarded as a highly cost-effective mechanism to reduce consumption but are often considered by policymakers to be regressive, undermining efforts to fully implement them at levels recommended by the WHO due to concerns of fairness. We aim to demonstrate whether there are circumstances in which the impacts of additional tobacco taxes are not regressive, using a standard income-share accounting definition of tax burden. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We apply mathematical modelling and explore the hypothetical distributions in the net change in tobacco taxes and cigarette expenditures by income group, following an increase in tobacco taxation. The hypothetical distribution per income group of additional taxes and cigarette expenditures borne by individuals following tobacco tax hikes was calculated with respect to a selection of parameters including: the change in the retail price of cigarettes, the price elasticity of demand for tobacco, smoking prevalence, cigarette consumption and individual income. We determine the range of hypothetical parameter values for which increased tobacco taxation should not be considered to penalise the poorest income groups when examining marginal cigarette consumption expenditures and using an accounting definition of tax burden. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings question the doctrine that tobacco taxes are uniformly regressive from a standard income-share accounting view and point to the importance of the specific features of tax policy to shape a progressive approach to tobacco taxation: tobacco tax increases are less likely to be regressive when accompanied by a broad framework of demand-side measures that enhance the capacity of low-income smokers to quit tobacco use.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of integrating screening and treatment of selected non-communicable diseases into HIV/AIDS treatment in Uganda.

INTRODUCTION: Despite growing enthusiasm for integrating treatment of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) into human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care and treatment services in sub-Saharan Africa, there is little evidence on the potential health and financial consequences of such integration. We aim to study the cost-effectiveness of basic NCD-HIV integration in a Ugandan setting. METHODS: We developed an epidemiologic-cost model to analyze, from the provider perspective, the cost-effectiveness of integrating hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM) and high cholesterol screening and treatment for people living with HIV (PLWH) receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Uganda. We utilized cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimations drawing from the previously established Globorisk model and systematic reviews; HIV and NCD risk factor prevalence from the World Health Organization's STEPwise approach to Surveillance survey and global databases; and cost data from national drug price lists, expert consultation and the literature. Averted CVD cases and corresponding disability-adjusted life years were estimated over 10 subsequent years along with incremental cost-effectiveness of the integration. RESULTS: Integrating services for hypertension, DM, and high cholesterol among ART patients in Uganda was associated with a mean decrease of the 10-year risk of a CVD event: from 8.2 to 6.6% in older PLWH women (absolute risk reduction of 1.6%), and from 10.7 to 9.5% in older PLWH men (absolute risk reduction of 1.2%), respectively. Integration would yield estimated net costs between $1,400 and $3,250 per disability-adjusted life year averted among older ART patients. CONCLUSIONS: Providing services for hypertension, DM and high cholesterol for Ugandan ART patients would reduce the overall CVD risk among these patients; it would amount to about 2.4% of national HIV/AIDS expenditure, and would present a cost-effectiveness comparable to other standalone interventions to address NCDs in low- and middle-income country settings.

Integrating care for non-communicable diseases into routine HIV services: key considerations for policy design in sub-Saharan Africa.

INTRODUCTION: There is great interest for integrating care for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) into routine HIV services in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) due to the steady rise of the number of people who are ageing with HIV. Suggested health system approaches for intervening on these comorbidities have mostly been normative, with little actionable guidance on implementation, and on the practical, economic and ethical considerations of favouring people living with HIV (PLHIV) versus targeting the general population. We summarize opportunities and challenges related to leveraging HIV treatment platforms to address NCDs among PLHIV. We emphasize key considerations that can guide integrated care in SSA and point to possible interventions for implementation. DISCUSSION: Integrating care offers an opportunity for effective delivery of NCD services to PLHIV, but may be viewed to unfairly ignore the larger number of NCD cases in the general population. Integration can also help maintain the substantial health and economic benefits that have been achieved by the global HIV/AIDS response. Implementing interventions for integrated care will require assessing the prevalence of common NCDs among PLHIV, which can be achieved via increased screening during routine HIV care. Successful integration will also necessitate earmarking funds for NCD interventions in national budgets. CONCLUSIONS: An expanded agenda for addressing HIV-NCD comorbidities in SSA may require adding selected NCDs to conditions that are routinely monitored in PLHIV. Attention should be given to mitigating potential tradeoffs in the quality of HIV services that may result from the extra responsibilities borne by HIV health workers. Integrated care will more likely be effective in the context of concurrent health system reforms that address NCDs in the general population, and with synergies with other HIV investments that have been used to strengthen health systems.

The Scale-Up of the Global Surgical Workforce: Can Estimates be Achieved by 2030?

BACKGROUND: The Lancet Commission on Global Surgery showed that countries with surgeon, anesthetist, and obstetrician (SAO) densities of 20-40 SAO/100,000 population were associated with improved health outcomes and recommended a global surgical workforce scale-up by 2030. Whether countries would be able to achieve such scale-up efforts in that time-frame is unknown. METHODS: A differential equation model was used to estimate the growth rate and number of SAO necessary for each country to reach the aforementioned SAO densities. Workforce data from Mexico and India were used to estimate achievable rates of SAO scale-up for middle- and low-income countries, respectively. Secular surgical growth rates were estimated to demonstrate what might occur without dedicated scale-up efforts. RESULTS: To reach at least 20 SAO/100,000 population in all countries by 2030, over 808 thousand SAO need to be trained by 2030. To reach at least 40 SAO/100,000 population, over 2.1 million SAO need to be trained. If countries adopt a scale-up rate similar to Mexico's previously achieved rate of scale-up, 66% of countries would have 20 SAO/100,000 population by 2030. If countries adopt a scale-up rate similar to India's previously achieved rate of scale-up, 56% would have 20 SAO/100,000 population by 2030. CONCLUSION: With dedicated efforts in surgical workforce scale-up, significant gains in SAO density can be made worldwide. However, without intervention, many countries are unlikely to improve their current workforce densities. Investments in workforce scale-up are likely to yield workforce gains that mirror current resource states.

Stage at diagnosis and stage-specific survival of breast cancer in Latin America and the Caribbean: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Female breast cancer is the most common cancer in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries and is the leading cause of cancer deaths. The high mortality-to-incidence ratio in the regions is associated with mainly the high proportion of advanced stage diagnosis, and also to inadequate access to health care. In this study we aimed to systematically review the proportion of advanced stage (III-IV) at diagnosis (pas) and the five-year stage-specific survival estimates of breast cancer in LAC countries. METHODS: We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and LILACS (Latin American and Caribbean Health Science Literature) to identify studies, in any language, indexed before Nov 5, 2018. We also conducted manual search by reviewing citations of papers found. pas was summarized by random effects model meta-analysis, and meta-regression analysis to identify sources of variation. Stage-specific survival probabilities were described as provided by study authors, as it was not possible to conduct meta-analysis. PROSPERO CRD42017052493. RESULTS: For pas we included 63 studies, 13 of which population-based, from 22 countries comprising 221,255 women diagnosed from 1966 to 2017. The distribution of patients by stage varied greatly in LAC (pas 40.8%, 95%CI 37.0% to 44.6%; I2 = 99%; p<0.0001). The heterogeneity was not explained by any variable included in the meta-regression. There was no difference in pas among the Caribbean (pas 43.0%, 95%CI 33.1% to 53.6%), Central America (pas 47.0%, 95%CI 40.4% to 53.8%) and South America (pas 37.7%, 95%CI 33.1% to 42.5%) regions. For 5-year stage-specific survival we included 37 studies, comprising 28,988 women from ten countries. Seven of these studies were included also for pas. Since we were unable to adjust for age, comparability between countries and regions was hampered, and as expected, the results varied widely from study to study. CONCLUSIONS: LAC countries should look to address concerns with early detection and diagnosis of breast cancer, and wherever viable implement screening programs and to provide timely treatment.

Disaggregating catastrophic health expenditure by disease area: cross-country estimates based on the World Health Surveys.

BACKGROUND: Financial risk protection (FRP) is a key objective of national health systems and a core pillar of universal health coverage (UHC). Yet, little is known about the disease-specific distribution of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) at the national level. METHODS: Using the World Health Surveys (WHS) from 39 countries, we quantified CHE, or household health spending that surpasses 40% of capacity-to-pay by key disease areas. We restricted our analysis to households in which the respondent used health care in the last 30 days and categorized CHE into disease areas included as WHS response options: maternal and child health (MCH); high fever, severe diarrhea, or cough; heart disease; asthma; injury; surgery; and other. We compared disease-specific CHE estimates by income, pooled funding as a share of total health expenditure, share of the population affected by the different diseases, and poverty status. RESULTS: Across countries, an average of 45.1% of CHE cases could not be tied to a specific cause; 37.6% (95% UI 35.4-39.9%) of CHE cases were associated with high fever, severe cough, or diarrhea; 3.9% (3.0-4.9%) with MCH; and 4.1% (3.3-4.9%) with heart disease. Injuries constituted 5.2% (4.2-6.4%) of CHE cases. The distribution of CHE varied substantially by national income. A 10% increase in heart disease prevalence was associated with a 1.9% (1.3-2.4%) increase in heart disease CHE, an association stronger than any other disease area. CONCLUSIONS: Our approach is comparable, comprehensive, and empirically based and highlights how financial risk protection may not be aligned with disease burden. Disease-specific CHE estimates can illuminate how health systems can target reform to best protect households from financial risk.

Distributional health and financial benefits of increased tobacco taxes in Colombia: results from a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: In Colombia, smoking is the second leading modifiable risk factor for premature mortality. In December 2016, Colombia passed a major tax increase on tobacco products in an effort to decrease smoking and improve population health. While tobacco taxes are known to be highly effective in reducing the prevalence of smoking, they are often criticised as being regressive in consumption. This analysis attempts to assess the distributional impact (across socioeconomic groups) of the new tax on selected health and financial outcomes. METHODS: This study builds on extended cost-effectiveness analysis methods to study the new tobacco tax in Colombia, and estimates, over a time period of 20 years and across income quintiles of the current urban population (80% of the country population), the years of life gained with smoking cessation and the increased tax revenues, all associated with a 70% relative price increase of the pack of cigarettes. Where possible, we use parameters that vary by income quintile, including price elasticity of demand for cigarettes (average of -0.44 estimated from household survey data). FINDINGS: Over 20 years, the tax increase would lead to an estimated 191 000 years of life gained among Colombia's current urban population, with the largest gains among the bottom two income quintiles. The additional annual tax revenues raised would amount to about 2%-4% of Colombia's annual government health expenditure, with the poorest quintiles bearing the smallest tax burden increase. CONCLUSIONS: The tobacco tax increase passed by Colombia has substantial implications for the country's population health and financial well-being, with large benefits likely to accrue to the two poorest quintiles of the population.

Estimates of Cancer Incidence in Ethiopia in 2015 Using Population-Based Registry Data.

PURPOSE: Noncommunicable diseases, prominently cancer, have become the second leading cause of death in the adult population of Ethiopia. A population-based cancer registry has been used in Addis Ababa (the capital city) since 2011. Availability of up-to-date estimates on cancer incidence is important in guiding the national cancer control program in Ethiopia. METHODS: We obtained primary data on 8,539 patients from the Addis Ababa population-based cancer registry and supplemented by data on 1,648 cancer cases collected from six Ethiopian regions. We estimated the number of the commonest forms of cancer diagnosed among males and females in Ethiopia and computed crude and age-standardized incidence rates. RESULTS: For 2015 in Ethiopia, we estimated that 21,563 (95% CI, 17,416 to 25,660) and 42,722 (95% CI, 37,412 to 48,040) incident cancer cases were diagnosed in males and females, respectively. The most common adult cancers were: cancers of the breast and cervix, colorectal cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, leukemia, and cancers of the prostate, thyroid, lung, stomach, and liver. Leukemia was the leading cancer diagnosis in the pediatric age group (age 0 to 14 years). Breast cancer was by far the commonest cancer, constituting 33% of the cancers in women and 23% of all cancers identified from the Addis Ababa cancer registry. It was also the commonest cancer in four of the six Ethiopian regions included in the analysis. Colorectal cancer and non-Hodgkin lymphoma were the commonest malignancies in men. CONCLUSION: Cancer, and more prominently breast cancer, poses a substantial public health threat in Ethiopia. The fight against cancer calls for expansion of population-based registry sites to improve quantifying the cancer burden in Ethiopia and requires both increased investment and application of existing cancer control knowledge across all segments of the Ethiopian population.

Distributional benefits of tobacco tax and smoke-free workplaces in China: A modeling study.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco taxation and smoke-free workplaces reduce smoking, tobacco-related premature deaths and associated out-of-pocket health care expenditures. We examine the distributional consequences of a price increase in tobacco products through an excise tax hike, and of an implementation of smoke-free workplaces, in China. METHODS: We use extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to evaluate, across income quintiles of the male population (the large majority of Chinese smokers), the premature deaths averted, the change in tax revenues generated, and the financial risk protection procured (eg, poverty cases averted, defined as the number of individuals no longer facing tobacco-related out-of-pocket expenditures for disease treatment, that would otherwise impoverish them), that would follow a 75% increase in cigarette prices through substantial increments in excise tax fully passed onto consumers, and a nationwide total implementation of workplace smoking bans. RESULTS: A 75% increase in cigarette prices would avert about 24 million premature deaths among the current Chinese male population, with a third among the bottom income quintile, increase additional tax revenues by US$ 46 billion annually, and prevent around 9 million poverty cases, 19% of which among the bottom income quintile. Implementation of smoking bans in workplaces would avert about 12 million premature deaths, with a fifth among the bottom income quintile, decrease tax revenues by US$ 7 billion annually, and prevent around 4 million poverty cases, 12% of which among the bottom income quintile. CONCLUSIONS: Increased excise taxes on tobacco products and workplace smoking bans can procure large health and economic benefits to the Chinese population, especially among the poor.

Cost-Effectiveness in Global Surgery: Pearls, Pitfalls, and a Checklist.

INTRODUCTION: Cost-effectiveness analysis can be a powerful policy-making tool. In the two decades since the first cost-effectiveness analyses in global surgery, the methodology has established the cost-effectiveness of many types of surgery in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, with the crescendo of cost-effectiveness analyses in global surgery has come vast disparities in methodology, with only 15% of studies adhering to published guidelines. This has led to results that have varied up to 150-fold. METHODS: The theoretical basis, common pitfalls, and guidelines-based recommendations for cost-effectiveness analyses are reviewed, and a checklist to be used for cost-effectiveness analyses in global surgery is created. RESULTS: Common pitfalls in global surgery cost-effectiveness analyses fall into five categories: the analytic perspective, cost measurement, effectiveness measurement, probability estimation, valuation of the counterfactual, and heterogeneity and uncertainty. These are reviewed in turn, and a checklist to avoid these pitfalls is developed. CONCLUSION: Cost-effectiveness analyses, when done rigorously, can be very useful for the development of efficient surgical systems in LMICs. This review highlights the common pitfalls in these analyses and methods to avoid these pitfalls.

The health, financial and distributional consequences of increases in the tobacco excise tax among smokers in Lebanon.

Tobacco use is a significant risk factor for the leading causes of death worldwide, including cancer, heart disease and stroke. Most of these deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, where tobacco-related deaths are also rising rapidly. Taxation is one of the most effective tobacco control measures, yet evidence on the distributional impact of tobacco taxation in low- and middle-income countries remains scant. This paper considers the financial and health effects, by socio-economic class, of increasing tobacco taxes in Lebanon, a middle-income country. An Almost Ideal Demand System is used to estimate price elasticities of demand for tobacco products. Extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) methods are applied to quantify, across quintiles of socio-economic status, the health benefits gained, the additional tax revenues raised, and the net financial consequences for households from a 50% increase in the price of tobacco through excise taxes. We find that demand for tobacco is price inelastic with elasticities ranging from -0.32 for the poorest quintile to -0.22 for the richest quintile. The increase in tobacco tax is estimated to result in 65,000 (95% CI: 37,000-93,000) premature deaths averted, 25% of them in the poorest quintile, $300M ($256-340M) of additional tax revenues, 12% borne by the poorest quintile, $23M ($13-33M) of out-of-pocket spending on healthcare averted, 36% of which accrue to the poorest quintile, 9% to the richest. These savings would be associated with 23,000 (13,000-33,000) poverty cases averted (63% in the poorest quintile). Increasing tobacco taxes would lead to large financial and health benefits, and would be pro-poor in health gains, savings on healthcare, and poverty reduction.

Task-sharing or public finance for the expansion of surgical access in rural Ethiopia: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis.

Despite a high burden of surgical disease, access to surgical services in low- and middle-income countries is often limited. In line with the World Health Organization's current focus on universal health coverage and equitable access to care, we examined how policies to expand access to surgery in rural Ethiopia would impact health, impoverishment and equity. An extended cost-effectiveness analysis was performed. Deterministic and stochastic models of surgery in rural Ethiopia were constructed, utilizing pooled estimates of costs and probabilities from national surveys and published literature. Model calibration and validation were performed against published estimates, with sensitivity analyses on model assumptions to check for robustness. Outcomes of interest were the number of deaths averted, the number of cases of poverty averted and the number of cases of catastrophic expenditure averted for each policy, divided across wealth quintiles. Health benefits, financial risk protection and equity appear to be in tension in the expansion of access to surgical care in rural Ethiopia. Health benefits from each of the examined policies accrued primarily to the poor. However, without travel vouchers, many policies also induced impoverishment in the poor while providing financial risk protection to the rich, calling into question the equitable distribution of benefits by these policies. Adding travel vouchers removed the impoverishing effects of a policy but decreased the health benefit that could be bought per dollar spent. These results were robust to sensitivity analyses.

Projections to achieve minimum surgical rate threshold: an observational study.

BACKGROUND: Recent work has indicated an increase in surgical services, especially in resource poor settings. However, the rate of growth is poorly understood and likely insufficient to meet public health needs. We previously identified a range of 4344 to 5028 operations per 100 000 population annually to be related to desirable health outcomes. From this and other evidence, the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery recommends a minimum rate of 5000 operations per 100 000 population. We evaluate rates of growth in surgery and estimate the time it will take to reach this minimum surgical rate threshold. METHODS: We aggregated 2004 and 2012 country-level surgical rate estimates into the 21 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. We calculated mean rates of surgery proportional to population size and estimate rate of growth between these years. We then extrapolated the time it will take to reach a surgical rate of 5000 operations per 100 000 population based on linear rates of change. FINDINGS: All but two regions (central Europe and southern Latin America) experienced growth in their surgical rates during the past 8 years; the fastest growth occurred in regions with the lowest surgical rates. 14 regions representing 79% of the world's population (5·5 billion people) did not meet the recommended surgical rate threshold in 2012. If surgical capacity grows at current rates, seven regions (central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, eastern sub-Saharan Africa, north Africa and middle east, south Asia, southeast Asia, and western sub-Saharan Africa) will not meet the recommended surgical rate threshold by 2035; Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa will not reach this level until 2124. INTERPRETATION: The rates of growth in surgical service delivery are exceedingly variable, but the largest growth rates were noted in the poorest regions. Although this study does not address the quality of care, and rates of surgery are unlikely to change linearly, this exercise is useful to project how many years it could take regions to reach specific surgical rates. At current rates of growth, 4·9 billion people (70% of the world's population) will still be living in countries below the minimum recommended rate of surgery in 2035. A strategy for strengthening surgical capacity is essential if these targets are to be met as part of integrated health system development. FUNDING: None.

Projections for Achieving the Lancet Commission Recommended Surgical Rate of 5000 Operations per 100,000 Population by Region-Specific Surgical Rate Estimates.

BACKGROUND: We previously identified a range of 4344-5028 annual operations per 100,000 people to be related to desirable health outcomes. From this and other evidence, the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery recommends a minimum rate of 5000 operations per 100,000 people. We evaluate rates of growth and estimate the time it will take to reach this minimum surgical rate threshold. METHODS: We aggregated country-level surgical rate estimates from 2004 to 2012 into the twenty-one Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. We calculated mean rates of surgery proportional to population size for each year and assessed the rate of growth over time. We then extrapolated the time it will take each region to reach a surgical rate of 5000 operations per 100,000 population based on linear rates of change. RESULTS: All but two regions experienced growth in their surgical rates during the past 8 years. Fourteen regions did not meet the recommended threshold in 2012. If surgical capacity continues to grow at current rates, seven regions will not meet the threshold by 2035. Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa will not reach the recommended threshold until 2124. CONCLUSION: The rates of growth in surgical service delivery are exceedingly variable. At current rates of surgical and population growth, 6.2 billion people (73% of the world's population) will be living in countries below the minimum recommended rate of surgical care in 2035. A strategy for strengthening surgical capacity is essential if these targets are to be met in a timely fashion as part of the integrated health system development.